With just over 24 hours left on the ultimatum issued by former US President Donald Trump, tensions are rising over whether Iran will comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic.

Trump has warned that failure to do so could trigger US strikes on Iranian power plants, marking a significant escalation in the crisis.

Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor of West Asian Studies at the University of Tehran, described the situation as a turning point, noting that Iran’s current posture stems from pressures following recent conflict.

He said the Strait of Hormuz had remained open for global shipments until tensions intensified, adding that Iran now views control of the waterway as its most important source of leverage against the United States.

According to Ahmadian, there are no clear indications that Tehran is prepared to back down, suggesting that Iranian authorities are unlikely to capitulate under pressure.

Trump, however, appears to be relying on the threat of targeting civilian infrastructure to force a shift in Iran’s position.

But Iranian officials have already signalled a possible response, warning of wider retaliatory strikes across the region, including in Israel, if such attacks are carried out.

The standoff raises fears of a broader regional conflict, as both sides maintain hardline positions with little sign of de-escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to pursue senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards “personally”, during a visit to an Israeli town struck by an Iranian missile the previous day.

“We’re going after the regime. We’re going after the IRGC, this criminal gang,” Netanyahu said, as he inspected the damage in the southern town of Arad.

“We’re going after them personally, their leaders, their installations, their economic assets. We’re going after them personally.”

Nigeria has entered into a fresh agreement with the United Kingdom that will enable British authorities to repatriate thousands of failed asylum seekers and convicted offenders to the West African nation.

The deal was formalised by Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo and UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood during President Bola Tinubu’s official visit to Britain, according to a statement released by the Home Office on Thursday.

Tinubu’s visit lasted two days, covering Wednesday and Thursday.

As part of the arrangement, the UK will also be able to return individuals who have overstayed their visas, with the framework offering broad operational flexibility to British authorities.

A key provision of the agreement is Nigeria’s acceptance, for the first time, of UK-issued letters as valid identification for deportees without passports. These documents serve as alternative proof of identity for individuals who lack proper travel papers and are used to facilitate their return.

Previously, Nigeria relied on emergency travel certificates as supporting identification for undocumented travellers.

The Home Office noted that Nigeria’s decision to recognise UK letters removes a significant bureaucratic barrier that has historically delayed deportations.

Details such as the commencement date and duration of the agreement have not been disclosed, and it remains unclear whether the deal includes any financial arrangement.

In 2022, Britain signed a comparable agreement with Rwanda, committing at least £370 million to relocate asylum seekers. However, that plan collapsed after Prime Minister Keir Starmer described it as “dead”.

It is also yet to be confirmed whether the deportation arrangement will apply exclusively to Nigerian nationals or extend to individuals of other nationalities.

According to reports, there are currently 961 Nigerian failed asylum seekers in the UK who have exhausted all legal appeals.

Additionally, the Home Office is awaiting the deportation of 1,110 Nigerian nationals convicted of crimes.

With the new agreement in place, both categories are expected to face quicker removal.

Tunji-Ojo said Nigeria’s signatory to the deal shows that “we are totally committed to being a responsible country in fulfilling our core obligations”.

“And for us to sustain that relationship, we must remember: ‘He who comes to equity must come with clean hands.’ So, we need to be as open and as fair as possible,” the minister said.

Alex Norris, the UK minister for border security and asylum, described Nigeria as a crucial partner in addressing irregular migration, noting its status as the UK’s largest visa market in Africa.

“We owe everyone across the system fairness,” Norris said, adding that “anyone who abuses our systems, breaks our laws or tries to cheat their way into Britain will be stopped and removed”.

The Home Office further disclosed that both countries have agreed to deepen cooperation through joint enforcement operations and intelligence sharing aimed at dismantling criminal networks exploiting visa pathways.

The agreement follows a series of notable cases involving fraudulent job sponsorships, sham marriages, and falsified financial and employment documentation.

Nigeria is also expected to review its legal framework on immigration-related offences, with the aim of imposing stricter penalties on offenders.

In addition, a new collaborative initiative will target online fraudsters engaged in romance scams, investment fraud, and cryptocurrency-related crimes, enhancing protection for UK residents.

The initiative, described as a “fusion cell” model, will unite government agencies, financial institutions, technology firms, and telecom companies to share intelligence swiftly and respond more effectively to evolving criminal methods.